MORE TUFF BEER TRENDS IN EARLY DEC INCLUDE STEEPER SAM ADAMS DECLINE, SLOWING BALLAST POINT

More signs that Dec not so hot turned up in quick update from Morgan Stanley rsquo;s Dara Mohsenian based on Nielsen all-outlet plus convenience data thru 12/17. First, total beer slipped into negative territory for 4 wks, $$ sales down just slightly, even tho it rsquo;s still up over 2% for 12 wks. Trends of couple of largest craft brand families headed in wrong direction too. Sam Adams brands had been doing a bit better: -6.4% for 12 wks compared to -7.1% for 52 wks thru 12/17. But 4-wk decline actually slightly steeper than 52-wks, -7.4%. So now Boston Beer rsquo;s oldest brand family just 40% of the co rsquo;s brand mix in Nielsen data (tho Sam a much bigger part of Boston rsquo;s on-premise biz still). Note very similar pattern for Blue Moon during same periods. Short- and long-term trends almost identical -2.8% and -2.7% for 4- and 52-wks, respectively, while 12-wk trend over a point better. At same time, Ballast Point still strong and up double-digits for all periods. But it rsquo;s not maintaining massive 77% gain for 52 wks. For 12 wks, Ballast up about 43% in off-premise scans, +27% for 4 wks.